Romney/Gingrich 2012!

As the circular firing squad that is the current Republican group of candidates moves further down the road, it is  becoming more and more clear that as much as it will take a "hold your nose" approach, the nomination of Willard "Mitt" Romney--however distasteful it might be for those folks who just don't trust members of the Church of Latter Day Saints--is probably the only viable candidate for the Presidency. Unless a "dark horse" emerges from the shadows, Romney seems to be legitimately beating Perry and the "Cain art project" (as Rachel Maddow puts it) and where are the "also-rans" who can be legitimately considered as serious candidates? Of the "five dwarves" (Santorum, Bachman, Hunstman, Paul and Gingrich) on stage at the 10th Republican "debate" from Wednesday, November 9th, only Gingrich has the credentials to not be considered a "nut job", even though he brings along the baggage of a "serial adulterer", famously moving from wife to wife with a new mistress (even, in the case of his first wife, while she was hospitalized).

Gingrich "balances the ticket" and could make voters from southern states hold their nose and vote for a "good, ole boy", perhaps hoping for a well-timed assassination that would elevate their nut-job to the Presidency before "that Mormon guy" has had much of a chance to "socialize" the country.

You read it here first! Stranger bedfellows have combined in Pres/VP partnerships before and unless someone who truly "balances the ticket" better, it sounds like a done deal to me. (Of course, there's always the chance that Romney goes the McCain route and selects a relatively unknown female candidate from obscurity ...--oh, wait! clearly that's INSANE!).

Relax! According to Lichtman, Obama Wins!

Allan Lichtman, a professor at the American University, recently published his book "The Keys to the White House" (Amazon book).  Lichtman also recently appeared on Lawrence O'Donnell's "The Last Word" on MSNBC where O'Donnell was so taken by Lichtman's logic that he admitted "Okay, that's it, we're done!".


Here's the interview:

Lichtman's criteria cover thirteen points and the general formula has correctly called every presidential election since Reagan's 1984 re-election. Here are the thirteen points:

So Obama clearly wins 9 out of the 13, leaving one tie and conceding 3 points to the challenger.

Does this mean we don't need the undoubtedly fractious campaigning of the next 14 months? Gee, wouldn't that be nice.

Buyer's Remorse? A Wisconsin Test ...

There has been a lot of talk in recent months among Democratic Party strategists about "buyer's remorse" pertaining as it pertains to the folks who handed Republicans majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives" in the 2010 mid-term election. Next Tuesday (August 9th) is a special election in several state Senate districts in Wisconsin. According to several political pundits, the Republican "pre-spin" on this recall (and substitute) election is that "oh, it really doesn't matter" (or words to that effect from the Chairman of the Republican National Committee). What's at stake in this special election is taking control of the Wisconsin Senate from the rubber-stamp "do anything you want" Republicans and potentially putting the brakes on several union-busting issues that seem to be test cases for other union-busting that the national Republicans would like to float through the rest of the country.

While I am obviously not a Wisconsin resident, I am tuned into a great national effort called "BoldProgressives.org" and they are organizing a "Call out the Vote" campaign in these final six days before this special election. I have signed up to use some of my "free" cell time on this coming Saturday and Sunday (August 6-7) and call voters to get them to the polls (or send in their absentee ballots if they haven't already).

I've participated in political "call out the vote" operations before--starting  with the 2006 mid-term that got Democrats in the majority of the House of Representative and our first woman Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi. Also, for candidate Barack Obama in the 2008 Presidential election and (to a lesser degree) the 2010 mid-term. As many of your may know, Hawaii is fortunate to have two Senators and two Representatives and all are long-time Democratic Party folks.

This Wisconsin special election is about stopping the union-busting effort that has been going on since Republican Scott Walker became governor and found himself with both houses of the Wisconsin state legislature under Republican control and set out to give millions in tax breaks to his big business cronies and pay for it by busting unions in Wisconsin and take away years of fair negotiation in contract and compensation matters. It's time to take back Wisconsin where many of our unions got their initial start. (Side note: There are at least FIVE towns or cities in Wisconsin named "Union"!)

If you are inclined to take a shot at progressive political activity, I encourage you to sign up with Bold Progressives for some calling this coming Saturday, Sunday, Monday or Tuesday as your time and telephone availability permits. Here's the link. Do what your conscience tells you to do, but BE PART OF THE ACTION!

Cynicism and Wrong-Headedness

Okay, they’re doing it. At a time when the economic realities in the U.S. scream for STIMULUS, the wrong-headed Teabaggers are wagging the tail of the Republican party and aiming the economic ship of state straight towards Niagra Falls.

Now it’s up to the Senate to de-fang the House Resolution (containing the “poison pill” of the mandatory passage of an unnecessary “balanced Budget Amendment”) and get past this normally pro-forma “debt ceiling” authorization. However, true to form, the wrong-headed Speaker of the House is not concentrating on the “Jobs! Jobs! Jobs!”  war cry that was utilized as their “platform” for the 2010 midterm elections but totally succumbing to the demands of a minority of his party elected in the same 2010 election that “gave” him his Majority in the House.

Be careful what you wish for, Mister Speaker! For the price of selling your soul to a splinter wing of conservative extremists to gain your oversized gavel, you’ve successfully brought the economic stability of the United States into question vis-à-vis the world money markets. Many distinguished economists have pointed out (repeatedly) that the pro-forma raise of our national debt—which has NEVER not passed—is absolutely necessary. Further, most have also wisely pointed out that this is NOT a time for belt-tightening, but a period when contracting national spending is totally contraindicated.

So. Standby for the blood and guts that comes from a totally wrong-headed move on the part of the Republican House majority. 

It won’t be pretty.

Of two minds ...

I'm wondering if the American public is slipping into a sort of Alzheimer's that lets them forget the past almost completely while railing against "big government". "What do you mean?", you ask.

Are the folks who are almost rabidly shouting for "cutting the deficit" and a balanced budget aware that a largely Republican-controlled Congress passed FIVE (count 'em!) separate bills raising the national debt during the George W. Bush administrations for about 4 TRILLIAN dollars total. Can we have already forgotten that the Bush administration inherited the largest surplus passed from one president to another in history and Bush passed on the largest deficit in the history of the country?

And now the party that pushed the theme "jobs! jobs! jobs!" in the 2010 elections is suddenly so deficit-conscious that they are eying severe reductions in Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security? (Oh, and by the way -- essentially little or no attention has been meaningfully paid to job creation in the U.S. House of Representations until this group of "job! job! jobs!" screamers. No. They've mostly looked at ways to cut funding to Planned Parenthood, PBS and NPR. Ever heard of "bait and switch"? We're getting it, fellow citizens.

In a time of economic uncertain, most economists warn against traditional belt-tightening. If we follow the Tea Partyers and Rethuglicans on this one, we're lemmings.